In an exclusive interview with Al Mayadeen, the former president of Bolivia’s Senate and Chamber of Deputies, Gabriela Montaño Viaña, shared her view of the country’s political landscape following the presidential elections on August 17.
On Sunday, opposition candidates Rodrigo Paz Pereira and former president Jorge ‘Tuto’ Quiroga emerged as the top vote-getters, paving the way for a historic runoff election scheduled for October 19.
From the perspective of Bolivian politics, the results reflect a profound break in the traditional electorate of the Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) party, as well as a crisis of representation affecting the popular sectors.
Fragmentation of the popular vote and rise in null votes
“First of all, I would like to say that the election results show three patterns of behavior among voters who had voted for the MAS over the last 20 years,” explained Montaño.
She indicated that a significant portion opted for the null vote, approximately 20 percent, representing an increase of between 400 and 450 percent compared to previous elections. “That part of the left or the popular bloc was led by Evo Morales,” she commented.
Another segment of the electorate supported the presidential candidate for the left-wing Popular Alliance, Andrónico Rodríguez, who represents the department of Cochabamba as a senator and has some support in his area of the Trópico region.
A third segment leaned toward the Christian Democratic Party (PDC) candidate, Rodrigo Paz Pereira, originally from the department of Tarija, although he gained significant support in western departments such as La Paz, Oruro, and Potosí, traditionally linked to the popular vote.
In her analysis, this fragmentation was caused not only by tensions between Evo Morales and President Luis Arce, but also by “very poor government management in the economic sphere,” which has hit the poorest sectors hard.
“It’s not a failure, it’s a betrayal,” according to Montaño.
Montaño was emphatic in stating that what happened in the presidential elections should not be interpreted as a failure of the left, but as a betrayal of the popular bloc by the government of Luis Arce and David Choquehuanca.
“We are mourning the betrayal carried out by Luis Arce and David Choquehuanca in Bolivia,” a betrayal that, according to her, manifested itself in political and legal persecution against indigenous and peasant leaders.
“That is why people did not support Luis Arce’s candidate, Eduardo del Castillo, his former government minister, who also led the political persecution of Evo Morales and the MAS from within the state.”
She also expressed concern about the future of the new MAS as a political party, indicating that it could be lost if the final results confirm the party’s weakening. “That acronym that was taken away from Evo Morales and social organizations is in danger of disappearing,” she said.
Second round and the rise of Rodrigo Paz
Looking ahead to the second round of elections, Montaño believes that Rodrigo Paz has a better chance of winning against Tuto Quiroga. In her opinion, Paz represents “a new face in politics,” while Quiroga has reached his electoral ceiling.
She also predicted that the number of null votes could increase even further, as an expression of popular sectors that feel excluded from the democratic system.
“People did not turn to the far right or the traditional right, but opted for a new candidate,” she said.
However, she warned that even with a possible victory for Paz, governance will not be easy due to the fragmentation of the vote and social discontent.
International politics and economic sovereignty
Finally, Montaño shared her opinion on Rodrigo Paz’s international approach. Although she considers him a capitalist and neoliberal candidate, she notes his stated openness to a multipolar world and his claims that he would refuse to subject Bolivian sovereignty to the dictates of the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Rodrigo Paz has said that he will not bring Bolivia to its knees before the IMF,” she said, adding that his proposals do not seem to follow orthodox formulas of severe economic adjustment such as those represented, in her view, by Tuto Quiroga.
This article has been translated from Spanish by Kawsachun News. Read the original in Al Mayadeen.
